Occupancy Patterns in a Small Pond Network

Dr. Zoi Rapti
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Associate Professor of Mathematics

“In this talk, we will use metapopulation theory, stochastic and spatially explicit simulations, and four years of data to attempt to understand the processes behind occupancy patterns in a network of 38 ponds. After fitting a simple model to the data, we examine how the number and identity of ponds that were initially stocked with Daphnia pulex (our focal organism) contribute to overall patterns of metapopulation occupancy. We also studied network robustness by removing (in silico) ponds and evaluating extinction risk. We also show how a simple ordinary differential equation, similar to the classic Levins model, is able to capture the dynamics of the stochastic simulations. The method we use is general enough to be applied in other systems for which presence-absence time-series data exist, and provide insights for habitat conservation and restoration efforts including how network spatial structure can drive spatiotemporal metapopulation occupancy and persistence.”