Tales from the Decadal Climate Prediction Trenches
Dr. Elizabeth Maroon
Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison
May 8, 2020 at 2:00pm
Remotely via Microsoft Teams
Climate prediction on interannual to decadal timescales is of great interest to stakeholders given the relevance of this timescale to decision-making. Our decadal prediction systems, however, are still primarily a research enterprise. In this colloquium, recent efforts to predict climate on interannual to decadal timescales using the most recent initialized hindcasts produced with the Community Earth System Model will be discussed. Two prediction case studies will be highlighted, one a prediction success (improvement of Sahel precipitation prediction), the other a failure (the inability to predict the 2015 subpolar North Atlantic cold blob).