Advanced Ensemble Prediction Systems

Image shows simulation of adaptive coevolutionary evolutionary programming.

I continue to develop a method (Evolutionary Programming) into a form that produces “ensemble” predictions for high impact weather and climate scenarios (heavy rainfall, flash flooding, hurricanes). Ensemble prediction systems, or any collection of experts, suffer from too much agreement amongst the individual predictions, that is, they do not properly capture the actual probability distribution of an individual event. My methods show considerable ability to provide skillful forecasts while also correcting this problem. The technique is applicable to any data (not just weather and climate), opening up a wide range of future applications, and it is fully adaptive to changing inputs. An article about this work is available here.