Advanced Ensemble Prediction Systems
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Paul Roebber continues to develop a method, known as Evolutionary Programming, into a form that produces “ensemble” predictions for high-impact weather and climate scenarios, such as heavy rainfall, flash flooding or hurricanes. Ensemble prediction systems, or any collection of experts, suffer from too much agreement among individual predictions, which prevents properly capturing the actual probability distribution of an individual event. Roebber’s methods show considerable ability to provide skillful forecasts while also correcting this problem. The technique is applicable to any data (not just weather and climate), opening up a wide range of future applications, and it is fully adaptive to changing inputs.
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Principal Investigator
Paul Roebber
Distinguished Professor, Mathematical Sciences - Atmospheric Science Group
UW-Milwaukee