Uncertainty Quantification for Geophysical Hazard Analysis

Dr. Elaine Spiller
Professor of Applied Math and Statistics
Marquette University

Geophysical flows — landslides, storm surge, tsunamis, volcanic flows, etc — pose a serious threat to nearby populations. Ideally, probabilistic hazard assessments combine available knowledge about physical mechanisms of the hazard, data on past hazards, and any available precursor information. Systematically assessing the probability of rare, yet catastrophic hazards adds a layer of difficulty due to limited observational data. Via computer models, one can exercise potentially dangerous scenarios that may not have happened in the past but are probabilistically consistent with the aleatoric nature of previous geophysical behavior in the record.

I will discuss recent work and ongoing methodological challenges toward making efficient and flexible geophysical hazard maps focusing on applications to volcanic flows (pyroclastic density currents) and post-fire debris flows.