Freshwater Collaborative Water Policy Network Meeting: A New Way to Build Water, Food, and Energy Futures at the Intersection of New Trade Policy and Sustainability

Despite ubiquitous use of scenarios in integrated assessment modeling, there has been little scholarly attention to how they are developed and how different approaches can shape results. Most rely on scientific experts, but the use of participatory stakeholder approaches is increasing. We present a case study on scenario development to investigate the effects of deglobalization on food, energy, and water systems in a region of the United States.  We combined input from the project team, external stakeholders, global change scenarios, and the U.S. Department of Energy to create scenarios with combinations of higher and lower environmental sustainability and globalization. Scenario construction encountered several challenges: (a) reconciling stakeholder and expert input; (b) downscaling global scenarios to subnational contexts; (c) navigating group dynamics and embedded perspectives; and (d) integrating time-series data into dynamic models. We conclude with recommendations for integrating participatory approaches into expert-driven scenarios to accommodate subnational conditions and stakeholder priorities.