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Master’s Thesis Defense: Cory Rothstein

June 26, 2018 @ 3:00 pm - 5:00 pm

Developing a Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities

Cory Rothstein
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
MS Graduate Student

“A method for predicting the probability of exceeding specific warm-season (April-October) 0-24 hour precipitation thresholds is developed based upon daily maximums of meteorological parameters. North American Regional Reanalysis and Daily Unified Precipitation data from 2002-2017 was used to gather meteorological data for the Milwaukee and Chicago County Warning Areas (CWAs). Individual artificial neural networks and multiple logistic regressions were conducted for daily rainfall thresholds above 0.5”, 1”, 1.5” and 2” to determine the probability of threshold exceedances for each CWA. The most important parameters dealt with 1000-500 hPa specific humidity, vertical velocities at various levels, high cloud cover, and precipitable water values. Critical Success Indices were universally higher than the average 2017 warm-season WPC threat scores, showing potential promise in operational forecasting use. Sensitivity analyses were run to determine degradation of model results when using NWP model forecasts. Future work includes the use of higher resolution rainfall data to increase heavy-rainfall case counts and boost model skill.”

Committee Members: 
Profs. Paul Roebber (Advisor); Clark Evans & Jon Kahl

Details

Date:
June 26, 2018
Time:
3:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Event Category:

Venue

EMS Building, Room W434
W434; 3200 N Cramer St.
Milwaukee, WI 53211 United States
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Phone
414-229-4836
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